Trends in Fertility Rate in Iran from 2016 to 2022: A Provincial Analysis

Articles in Press

Document Type : Original article

Author

Behbahan faculty of medical sciences

10.22038/rcm.2026.95822.1591

Abstract

This study analyzes Iran's total fertility rate (TFR) dynamics from 2016-2017 (1395) to 2021-2022 (1400), using provincial-level data from Iran's Statistical Center. Nationally, TFR declined sharply: Iranian-specific fertility fell by 22.2% (from 2.12 to 1.65), while overall fertility (including migrants) decreased by 17.5% (from 2.11 to 1.74). Statistical analyses (ANOVA, Tukey HSD) confirmed significant annual declines (p<0.001), with the steepest drops between 1398-1399 for Iranian-specific rates (mean difference=0.489, p=0.001). Key findings reveal stark regional disparities: Sistan and Baluchestan maintained Iran's highest TFR (3.65 in 1395 to 3.48 in 1400), contrasting with Tehran (1.64 to 1.26) and Gilan (1.38 to 1.06). Urban provinces exhibited the most pronounced declines (e.g., Alborz: 1.01), while southeastern regions demonstrated resilience. Correlation analyses showed strong interannual consistency (Pearson’s r≥0.964, p<0.001). Drivers of demographic changes include urbanization, female education, and family planning access. Post-1397 trends reveal cultural and regional influences on women's workforce participation leading to sub-replacement fertility. The median age is projected to rise from 31.2 (1400) to 41.7 (1430), necessitating targeted policies.

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Reviews in Clinical Medicine

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 24 June 2026

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